The diffusion model of T. H.gestrand. An application to livestock farming in the Catalan Pyrenees

Abstract

Modern agriculture should be analyzed according to the degree of acceptance of the technical innovations which permit it to increase its efficiency. The process of change in agrarian activities is the most frequently encountered element in economic specialization in rural areas. Innovation almost inevitable involves considerable capital investment, the acceptance of new crops or varieties of these, and the learning of new methods and techniques. In synthesis, increased efficiency is the result of increased productivity of both production factors -capital and labour- and this principle is equally valid for both intensive and extensive agricultural practices.

This article offers a mathematical view-point of the evolutionary process in liverstock farming in a mountainous area, already outlined in «Classification of agrarian change in mountainous areas» published in the previous number of this publication. That article was concerned with the local typologies of such evolution, whereas the present article analizes the process of spatial evolution of the commercial agricultural enterprises which can be considered innovators. To do so, T. Hägerstrand's diffusion model was applied, thereby making it possible to predict the spatial distribution and varying importance of commercial agricultural enterprises up to unti1 the year 2015.

For the purpose of this study, traditional administrative boundaries were replaced by a Lambert rectilinear 2. 5 x 2. 5 Km grid (625 hectares). The relevant information was noted in each square of the grid (a) for the variable -the volume of milk produced by commercial enterprises in 1980; and (b) for the four most significant explicative variables -potential for mechanized irrigation in pastures and forage-producing land; relative accessibility to processing plants; an indicator of the suitability of the physical environment; and the residual element of the regression analysis is accounted for by the distance between recently-established and long-standing commercial enterprises. This leads to the formulation of the hypothesis that contact with innovators accounts for the dependent variable over and above the explanation offered by the significant independent variables.

The results obtained for the period 1950-2015 have been tested, with positive results, for the period 1950-1980. The validity of the model used in this subject of research study is therefore proven.