Recent demographic trends in Catalonia and their territorial impact

Abstract

After twenty-five years of exceptionally rapid population growth in Catalonia, a sudden change has occurred: marriage and birth rates have fallen to almost half the 1975 figures in the space of six years, while the net rates of migration fell from almost 100. 000 immigrants per annum in the peak years of the sixties, to 17. 000 in 1982. As a result, annual population increase dropped from an average of 2,25 % between 1950 and 1975 (which represented the doubling of population in twenty-five years, as in Third World countries) to 0,15 % in 1982 (which is practically stationary growth).

In 1982, population increase in Catalonia amounted to a meagre total. of 10. 000 inhabitants. Hence, a slight increase in return migratory movements to places of origin, or an influenza epidemic such as those which ocurred in 1971 and 1973 would be sufficient to register negative growth rates. Birth rates have possibly reached an all-time minimum, and may well stabilize off at a slightly higher level than at present. Nevertheless, that would not be sufficient to register a noteworthy recovery of net population increase, because of a probable increase in death rates due to the rapid and inevitable aging of the population.

Also noteworthy is the continuing existence of considerable areal variations in both natural and migratory population growth rates within Catalonia. However, in the five year period between 1975 and 1981, not only do these demographic variations appear to have come to a standstill, but also there are symptoms of a tendency to converge. Certainly, the highest rates tend to diminish, and the lowest to increase. The long-established process of spatial concentration continues, but the pace has slackened.

Finally, the coincidence of almost non-existent population growth and migration together with the remarkably large number of young people (between 15 and 25 years of age) make it advisable (and perhaps even necessary) to put a regionally oriented population policy into practice.